Análise espaço-temporal da expansão dos plantios florestais comerciais no Brasil sob a condição de minimização de impactos negativos e potenciais conflitos

Abstract

The National Plan for the Development of Planted Forests - NPDP aims to strategically consolidate the forestry sector as a mean for achieving Brazil´s development goals. This policy aims to expand the current area of planted forests from 7.2 million (2015) to 10.6 million hectares (2025). The NPDP, however, does not addresses the territorial implications of establishing its goals. The policy neither specifies which type of land is targeted for fulfilling its ambitious goals nor it assesses negative impacts or potential conflicts it may raise. This work focus on developing a spatially explicit model of land use change for simulating scenarios for the expansion of commercial monocultures f of Eucalyptus and Pinus in Brazil. The model integrates macro and micro-scale components, of profitability and climatic favorability, to simulate the spatial dynamics of silvicultural systems in such a way conflicts of the new plantations with other uses are minimal and natural ecosystems are, as much as possible, preserved. The spatial allocation presented a level of accuracy of 70% that was considered adequate for the purposes of this study. The results indicated the possibility of expanding the commercial forest plantations in Brazil with the least conflict (5% overlap) with the scenario of agricultural expansion and without the need to convert natural forest ecosystems. For that, public policies are needed to effectively guide the expansion of the sector