Os limites do corpo
a longevidade em uma perspectiva demográfica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35699/2316-770X.2012.2717Abstract
Our chances of reaching 100 years of age are significantly higher than those of our ancestors who lived until the eighteenth century. Over the past two centuries, advances in public health, income gains, and the continuous technological development have enabled longevity to reach historically unprecedented levels. This article critically surveys the large and growing literature on factors that may have contributed to reducing mortality levels in the world. We are particularly interested on issues that currently have been the focus of demographers: the levels and patterns of mortality at advanced ages, the proliferation of centenarians, and the demographic and socioeconomic consequences of longevity gains. Whenever possible, we discuss the specific case of Brazil.
Downloads
References
AGOSTINHO, C. S. Estudo sobre a mortalidade adulta, para Brasil entre 1980 e 2000 e Unidades da Federação em 2000: uma aplicação dos métodos de distribuição de mortes. Tese (Doutorado em Demografia) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte - MG. 2009.
ANDERSEN-RANBERG, K.; SCHROLL, M.; JEUNE, B. Healthy centenarians do not exist, but autonomous centenarians do: a population-based study of morbidity among Danish centenarians. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, Malden, v. 49, n. 7, p. 900-908, 2001.
BECKER, G. S.; PHILIPSON, T. J.; SOARES, R. R. The quantity and quality of life and the evolution of world inequality. American Economic Review, Pittsburgh, v. 95, n. 1, p. 277-291, 2005.
CAMARANO, A. A. Cuidados de longa duração para a população idosa: um novo risco social a ser assumido? In: CAMARANO, A. A. (Ed.). Cuidados de longa duração para a população idosa: um novo risco social a ser assumido? Rio de Janeiro: IPEA, 2010. p. 337-349.
CAMARANO, A. A.; KANSO, S. Envelhecimento da população brasileira: uma contribuição demográfica. In: FREITAS, E. V. DE et al. (Eds.). Tratado de Geriatria e Gerontologia. São Paulo: Guanabara-Koogan, 2011. .
CAMPOS, N. O. B. O ritmo de declínio da mortalidade dos idosos nos Estados do Sudeste, 1980/2000. Dissertação (Mestrado em Demografia) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte - MG. 2004.
CASELLI, G. et al. Family clustering in Sardinian longevity: a genealogical approach. Experimental Gerontology, v. 41, n. 8, p. 727-736, 2006.
CASTRO, M. C. Entradas e saídas no sistema previdenciário brasileiro: uma aplicação de tábuas de mortalidade. Dissertação (Mestrado em Demografia) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte - MG. 1997.
CHAIMOWICZ, F.; CAMARGOS, M. C. S. Envelhecimento e Saúde no Brasil. In: FREITAS, E. V. DE et al. (Eds.). Tratado de Geriatria e Gerontologia. Sao Paulo: Guanabara-Koogan, 2011. p. 75-98.
CHRISTENSEN, K. et al. Agein g populations: the challenges ahead. The Lancet, New York, v. 374, n. 9696, p. 1196-1208, 2009.
CHRISTENSEN, K.; VAUPEL, J. W. Genetic factors and adult mortality. In: ROGERS, R. G.; CRIMMINS, E. M. (Eds.). International Handbook of Adult Mortality. New York: Springer, 2011.
CHRISTENSEN, K.; et al. Exceptional longevity does not result in excessive levels of disability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, v. 105, n. 36, p. 13274-13279, 2008.
COALE, A. The effect of declines in mortality on age distribution. Milbank Memorial Fund, 1956.
COALE, A.; KISKER, E. Mortality crossover: Reality or bad data. Population Studies, London, v. 40, n. 3, p. 389-401, 1986.
COUGHLAN, G. D. et al. LifeMetrics: A toolkit for measuring and managing longevity and mortality risks. Technical document. JPMorgan Pension Advisory Group, 2007.
COUZIN-FRANKEL, J. A Pitched Battle Over Life Span. Science, New York, v. 333, n. 6042, p. 549, 2011.
DECHTER, A. R.; PRESTON, S. H. Age misreporting and its effects on adult mortality estimates in Latin America. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, Geneva, v. 31-32, p. 1-16, 1991.
DESJARDINS, B. Validation of extreme longevity cases in the past: the French-Canadian experience. In: JEUNE, BERNARD; VAUPEL, JAMES W (Eds.). Validation of exceptional longevity (Odense Monographs on Population Aging, Vol. 6). Odense: Univ Pr of Southern Denmark, 1999. p. 249.
ENGBERG, H. et al. Improving activities of daily living in Danish centenarians – but only in women: a comparative study of two birth cohorts born in 1895 and 1905. Journals of Gerontology. Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, Oxford, v. 63A, n. 11, p. 1186-1192, 2008
EVERT, J. et al. Morbidity profiles of centenarians: survivors, delayers, and escapers. Journals of Gerontology. Series A Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, Oxford, v. 58, n. 3, p. 232-237, 2003.
EWBANK, D. Age misreporting and age-selective underenumeration: sources, patterns, and consequences for demographic analysis. Washington: National Academy Press, 1981.
EWBANK, D. Demography in the age of genomics: a first look at the prospects. In: FINCH, C. E.; VAUPEL, J W; KINSELLA, K. (Eds.). Cells and surveys: Should biological measures be included in social science research? Washington, D.C.: Committe on Population, National Research Council, 2001. p. 64–109.
FRIES, J. F. Measuring and monitoring success in compressing morbidity. Annals of Internal Medicine, Philadelphia, v. 139, p. 455-459, 2003.
GAVRILOV, L. A.; GAVRILOVA, N. S. Mortality measurement at advanced ages: a study of the Social Security Administration Death Master file. North American Actuarial Journal, Schaumburg, v. 15, n. 3, p. 432-447, 2011. GAVRILOV, L. A. et al. Genealogical data and the biodemography of human longevity. Social Biology, Durham, v. 49, n. 3-4, p. 160-173, 2002.
GAVRILOV, L. A..; GAVRILOVA, N. S. Demographic consequences of defeating aging. Rejuvenation research, New Rochelle, v. 13, n. 2-3, p. 329-34, 2010.
GOMES, M. M. F.; TURRA, C M. The number of centenarians in Brazil: indirect estimates based on death certificates. Demographic Research, Rostock, v. 20, p. 495-502, 2009.
HAKKERT, R. Fontes de dados demográficos. Belo Horizonte: ABEP, 1996. p. 72
HELLEINER, K. F. The population of Europe from the black death to the eve of the vital revolution. In: RICH, E. E.; WILSON, C. (Eds.). The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, vol 4: the economy of expanding europe in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1967.
HERSKIND, A.; MCGUE, M;HOLM, N. The heritability of human longevity: a population-based study of 2872 Danish twin pairs born 1870-1900. Human Genetics, Tokyo, v. 97, n. 3, p. 319-23, 1996.
HORIUCHI, S.; WILMOTH, J. Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at older ages. Demography, Seattle, v. 35, n. 4, p. 391-412, 1998.
HORTA, C. J. G.;SAWYER, D. R. T. O.;CARVALHO, J. A. M. À procura de identificação dos padrões de mortalidade no Brasil. In: ANAIS DO XV ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ESTUDOS POPULACIONAIS. Anais... Caxambu: ABEP, 2006.
HUMAN MORTALITY DATABASE. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Disponível em www.mortality.org ou www.humanmortality.de (dados obtidos em 1/2/2012).
IBGE. Observações sobre a evolução da mortalidade no Brasil: o passado, o presente e perspectivas. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2010.
JEUNE, B. In search of the first centenarians. In: JEUNE, BERNARD; VAUPEL, JAMES W (Eds.). Exceptional longevity: from prehistory to the present (Odense Monographs on Population Aging). Odense: Univ Pr of Southern Denmark, 1995. p. 169.
KANNISTO, V. et al. Reductions in mortality at advanced ages: several decades of evidence from 27 countries. Population and Development Review, v. 20, n. 4, p. 793-810, 1994.
KOTLIKOFF, L. J.; SMETTERS, K.; WALLISER, J. Finding a way out of America’s demographic dilemma. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, 2001.
LEE, R. D. A cross-cultural perspective on intergenerational transfers and the economic life cycle. In: MASON, A.; TAPINOS, G. (Eds.). Sharing the wealth: demographic change and economic transfers between generations. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000. p. 17-56.
LEE, R. D. Mortality forecasts and linear life expectancy trends. In: BENGTSSON, T. (Ed.). Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy History and Prospects (Social Insurance Studies n.3). Estocolmo: Swedish National Social Insurance Board, 2003. p. 19-39.
LEE, R. D.; YAMAGATA, H. Sustainable Social Security: what would it cost? National Tax Journal, Washington DC, v. 56, n. 1, p. 24-43, 2003.
LIVI-BACCI, M. A Concise History of World Population. Malden, MA: Blackwell, 2001.
MANTON, K.G.; STALLARD, E.;VAUPEL, J.W. Alternative models for the heterogeneity of mortality risks among the aged. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Alexandria, VA, v. 81, n. 395, p. 635-644, 1986.
MASON, A.; LEE, R. D. Population aging and the generational economy: key findings. In: LEE, R.D.; MASON, A. (Eds.). Population aging and the generational economy. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2011.
MILLER, T. The rise of the intergenerational state: aging and development. In: LEE, R.D.; MASON, A. (Eds.). Population aging and the generational economy. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2011.
MITCHELL, O. S.;MCCARTHY, D. Annuities for an ageing world. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002.
MORAES, E. N. DE; MORAES, F. L. DE;LIMA, S. P. P. Características biológicas e psicológicas do envelhecimento. Revista Médica de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, v. 20, n. 1, p. 67-73, 2010.
MURPHY, K. M.; TOPEL, R. H. The Value of Health and Longevity. Journal of Political Economy, Chicago, v. 114, n. 5, p. 871-904, doi:10.1086/508033, 2006.
OEPPEN, J.; VAUPEL, J W. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science, New York, v. 296, n. 5570, p. 1029-1031, 2002.
OLSHANSKY, S. J.; CARNES, B.;MANDELL, M. S. Future trends in human longevity: Implications for investments, pensions and the global economy. Pensions: An International Journal, London, v. 14, n. 3, p. 149-163, 2009.
OMRAN, A. R. The epidemiologic transition. A theory of the epidemiology of population change. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, New York, v. 49, n. 4, p. 509-538, 1971.
PEIRUQUE, E. C. Intermitências da morte. Conexão Letras, Porto Alegre, v. 3, p. 145-148, 2008.
PERLS, T. et al. Survival of parents and siblings of supercentenarians. The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, Oxford, v. 62, n. 9, p. 1028, 2007.
PESSOA, J. L. de L. Registro Civil de Nascimento: direito fundamental e pressuposto para o exercício da cidadania. Brasil, 1988-2006. Dissertação (Mestrado em Direto) - Faculdade de Direito de Campos, Campos - RJ. 2006.
POULAIN, M. On the age validation of supercentenarians. Supercentenarians, p. 3-30, 2010.
POULAIN, M.;CHAMBRE, D.; FOULON, M. Centenarian validation in Belgium. In: JEUNE, BERNARD; VAUPEL, JAMES W (Eds.). Validation of exceptional longevity (Odense Monographs on Population Aging, Vol. 6). Odense: Univ Pr of Southern Denmark, 1999. p. 249.
PRESTON, S. H. Effect of mortality change on stable population parameters. Demography, Seattle, v. 11, n. 1, p. 119-130, 1974.
PRESTON, S. H.; ELO, I.T.; STEWART, Q. Effects of age misreporting on mortality estimates at older ages. Population Studies, London, v. 53, n. 2, p. 165-177, 1999.
PRESTON, S. H.; HEUVELINE, P.; GUILLOT, M. Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Malden, MA: Blackwell, 2001.
PRESTON, S. H.; HIMES, C.; EGGERS, M. Demographic conditions responsible for population aging. Demography, Seattle, v. 26, n. 4, p. 691-704, 1989.
PRESTON, S. H.; STOKES, A. Contribution of obesity to international differences in life expectancy. American Journal of Public Health, Washington DC, n. 2009, p. e1-e7, 2010.
PRESTON, S. H. Deadweight?--The influence of obesity on longevity. The New England Journal of Medicine, Waltham, v. 352, n. 11, p. 1135-1137, 2005.
PÉREZ, E. R. Estimativas de mortalidade adulta feminina por nível de escolaridade no Brasil. Tese (Doutorado em Demografia) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte - MG. 2010.
RAU, R; SOROKO, E.;JASILIONIS, D. Continued reductions in mortality at advanced ages. Population and Development Review, Hoboken, v. 34, n. December, p. 747-768, 2008.
ROBINE, J.-M. et al. Centenarians today: new insights on selection from the 5-COOP study. Current Gerontology and Geriatrics Research, New York, v. 2010, p. 120354, 2010.
ROSENWAIKE, I.; STONE, L. F. Verification of the ages of supercentenarians in the United States: results of a matching study. Demography, Seattle, v. 40, n. 4, p. 727-739, 2003.
SCHOENHOFEN, E. A. et al. Characteristics of 32 supercentenarians. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, Malden, v. 54, n. 8, p. 1237-1240, 2006.
SEBASTIANI, P. et al. Whole Genome Sequences of a Male and Female Supercentenarian, Ages Greater than 114 Years. Frontiers in Genetics, Lausanne, v. 2, n. January, p. 1-28, 2012.
SIEGEL, J. S. The great debate on the outlook for human longevity: exposition and evaluation of two divergent views. Society of Actuaries, 2005.
SILVA, F.S. Impacto de tábuas seletas de mortalidade no valor de reservas matemáticas de benefício concedido de aposentadoria por invalidez. Monografia (Graduação em Ciências Atuariais) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte - MG. 2006.
SILVEIRA, M. H.;LAURENTI, R. Os eventos vitais: aspectos de seus registros e inter-relação da legislação vigente com as estatísticas de saúde. Rev Saúde Pública, São Paulo, v. 7, p. 37-50, 1973.
SKIRBEKK, V. Age and individual productivity: a literature survey. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna, v. 1, n. 2004, p. 133-154, 2004.
SKYTTHE, A.; HAUGE, G.;JEUNE, B. Age validation of reported centenarians before 1900 in Denmark. In: JEUNE, BERNARD; VAUPEL, JAMES W (Eds.). Validation of exceptional longevity (Odense Monographs on Population Aging, Vol. 6). Odense: Univ Pr of Southern Denmark, 1999. p. 249.
SOARES, R. R. Mortality reductions, educational attainment, and fertility choice. American Economic Review, Pittsburgh, v. 95, n. 3, p. 580-601, 2005.
SOUZA, M. C. M. Um estudo sobre a mortalidade dos aposentados idosos do regime geral de Previdência Social do Brasil no período de 1998 a 2002. Dissertação (Mestrado em Demografia) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte - MG. 2009.
STONE, L. F. Studies in the demography of supercentenarians in the United States. Tese (Doutorado em Demografia) - University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia - PA. 2003.
SWEDLUND, A. C. et al. Family patterns in longevity and longevity patterns of the family. Human Biology an International Record of Research, Detroit, v. 55, n. 1, p. 115-129, 1983.
THATCHER, A. R. The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A Statistics in Society, Malden, v. 162, n. Pt. 1, p. 5-43, 1999.
TURRA, C. M.; QUEIROZ, B. L. Las transferencias intergeneracionales y la desigualdade socioeconómica en Brasil: un análisis inicial. Notas de Población, Santiago, v. 80, 2005.
TURRA, C. M..; QUEIROZ, B. L.;RIOS-NETO, E. L. G. Idiosyncrasies of intergenerational transfers in Brazil. In: LEE, R D; MASON, A (Eds.). Population aging and the generational economy. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2011.
TURRA, C. M. Living and dying at older ages: Essays on the Hispanic mortality paradox and the annuity puzzle in the US. Tese (Doutorado em Demografia) - University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia - PA. 2004.
TURRA, C. M..; GOMES, M. M. F. O padrão de mortalidade adulta no Brasil: implicações dos erros de declaração de idade. Belo Horizonte, MG: Manuscrito, 2011.
VALLIN, J.;MESLÉ, F. Convergences and divergences in mortality. Demographic Research, Rostock, v. Special 2, p. 11-44, 2004.
VAUPEL, J. W. Trajectories of mortality at advanced ages. In: WACHTER, K. W.; FINCH, C. E. (Eds.). Between Zeus and the Salmon. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1997. p. 17-37.
VAUPEL, J. W. Biodemography of human ageing. Nature, London, New York, Tokyo, v. 464, n. 7288, p. 536-542, 2010.
VAUPEL, J. W. et al. Biodemographic trajectories of longevity. Science, New York, v. 280, n. 5365, p. 855-860, 1998.
VAUPEL, J. W.; JEUNE, B. The emergence and proliferation of centenarians. Exceptional longevity: from prehistory to the present (Odense Monographs on Population Aging). [S.l.]: Univ Pr of Southern Denmark, 1995. p. 169.
WHITE, K. M. Longevity advances in high-income countries, 1955-96. Population and Development Review, Hoboken, v. 28, n. 1, p. 59-76, 2002.
WILLCOX, D. C.; WILLCOX, B. J.; POON, L. W. Centenarian studies: important contributors to our understanding of the aging process and longevity. Current gerontology and geriatrics research, New York, v. 2010, p. 484529, doi:10.1155/2010/484529, 2010.
WILMOTH, J. R. In search of limits. In: WACHTER, K. W.; FINCH, C. E. (Eds.). Between Zeus and the Salmon. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1997. p. 38-64.
WILMOTH, J. R.; ROBINE, J. M. The world trend in maximum life span. Population and Development Review, Hoboken, v. 29, p. 239–257, 2003.
YOUNG, R. D. et al. Typologies of extreme longevity myths. Current Gerontology and Geriatrics Research, New York, v. 2010, 2011.
ZHANG, J.; ZHANG, J.;LEE, R.D. Rising longevity, education, savings and growth. Journal of Development Economics, Amsterdan, v. 70, n. 1, p. 83-101, 2003.
