Decomposition of the Total Fertility Rate in Brazil, 1980-2010

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to present time series (1980 to 2010) of tempo, quantum and parity composition effects, both global and by birth order, obtained through the application of the Kohler and Ortega decomposition model (KO Model). I used the microdata from reconstructed birth histories derived from the Demographic Censuses of 1991, 2000, and 2010. The results indicate that changes in fertility in Brazil over the past decades have not been limited to the decline in the total fertility rate. During part of the fertility transition, timing and parity effects contributed to an increase in observed fertility, slowing down the decline. Since the mid-1990s, tempo effect has been reinforcing the fertility decline; however, at the end of the period, the parity composition effect compensates for the timing effect. Additionally, fertility has been increasingly concentrated in lower birth orders, accompanied by an increase in the average age of fertility. The emerging trends, if they persist, are likely to further reduce the Brazilian fertility, with implications for population aging and overall population growth.